Hurricane Helene Threatens Florida and Gulf Coast: Hurricane Watches Issued
At a Glance:
- Hurricane and tropical storm watches are now in effect for parts of Florida.
- The storm is expected to become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.
- Forecast models indicate a potential landfall in Florida or the northern Gulf Coast by Thursday.
- The hurricane could bring life-threatening storm surges, high winds, and heavy rainfall.
- Impacts from the storm may extend inland across parts of the South by Friday.
As Tropical Storm Helene develops, communities along the U.S. Gulf Coast—from Louisiana to Florida—should remain vigilant and prepare for potentially dangerous conditions later this week.
Current Storm Status: Tropical Storm Helene Likely to Strengthen
Tropical Storm Helene could form later today, and is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane before reaching Florida or the northern Gulf Coast. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued tropical storm and hurricane watches for parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, Greater Antilles, and Florida. These alerts mean that tropical storm conditions are expected, and hurricane conditions are possible within the next 36 to 48 hours.
Location and Development:
As of now, the storm is located about 120 miles west of Grand Cayman with sustained winds of 35 mph. Thunderstorms in the area are becoming more organized, and rapid strengthening is expected.
Dubbed “Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine” by the NHC, this system is expected to become Tropical Storm Helene today, following the NHC’s procedure to issue alerts ahead of the storm’s formation.
Timeline of Helene’s Expected Path and Impacts:
- Tuesday: Helene is expected to approach Cancún, Cozumel, and western Cuba, potentially reaching Category 1 hurricane strength. These areas could see heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts, and dangerous storm surges. Parts of western Cuba may experience up to 12 inches of rain.
- Wednesday: Helene is forecast to enter the southern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. Outer rainbands and rough surf could begin affecting Florida’s Gulf Coast, from the Keys to the Panhandle.
- Thursday: The storm is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane, likely along Florida’s Big Bend or the Panhandle. However, hurricane impacts—such as storm surge, high winds, and rain—can extend far from the storm’s center. Forecast models are still showing some uncertainty, with possible landfall locations ranging from Florida’s West Coast to southeast Louisiana or Mississippi.
- Friday: Helene is expected to push inland, with strong wind gusts and heavy rain affecting parts of the Southeast. Flooding rain could be a concern in the days following landfall.
Hurricane Helene’s Potential Strength:
Helene could intensify to at least Category 3 before landfall, due to favorable conditions in the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf’s water temperatures are at record highs for this time of year, and upper-level winds are expected to promote storm strengthening rather than weakening.
Rainfall and Storm Surge Threats:
Heavy rainfall is expected, especially along and to the east of Helene’s path. The heaviest rain will likely occur Thursday and Friday in parts of the Southeast. This could lead to flash flooding, particularly where rainbands stall or combine with storm surge in coastal areas.
Storm Surge:
A storm surge watch has been issued for parts of Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Water levels could rise 10 to 15 feet above normal in Florida’s Big Bend, with Tampa Bay potentially seeing 5 to 8 feet of surge.
Key Takeaways:
- Tropical Storm Helene is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.
- Florida and the northern Gulf Coast should prepare for life-threatening storm surges, high winds, and heavy rain.
- Those in the affected areas should monitor the situation closely and have their hurricane preparedness plans in place.
Stay tuned for regular updates as the situation evolves, and sign up for the Morning Brief email newsletter from The Weather Channel for daily forecasts from our meteorologists.